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俄羅斯會在…前抓住奧列克謝耶沃-德魯日基夫卡嗎？
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
24 小時成交量US$90
累積成交量US$6.1萬
流動性US$7353.9
截止時間（臺北）2027年1月1日
機率走勢
同時比較 2 個選項 · 市場參考機率
此期間尚無可用的歷史行情目前機率仍可在上方選項中查看。
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英文原文 · 尚未翻譯到2026年12月31日，俄羅斯會佔領奧列克謝耶沃-德魯日基夫卡嗎？
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the railroad station (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) located in Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:
- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain
- Assessed Russian Advances
Shading under the following layers will not qualify:
- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas
- Claimed Russian Territory
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka1.png
Location in Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka2.png
Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZH4QxaEkdvhuK7xN9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
官方結算資料來源在 Polymarket 查看完整市場事件背景
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the railroad station (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) located in Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:
- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain
- Assessed Russian Advances
Shading under the following layers will not qualify:
- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas
- Claimed Russian Territory
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka1.png
Location in Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka2.png
Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZH4QxaEkdvhuK7xN9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.