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俄羅斯會在...之前佔領Kostyantynivka的皇家咖啡館Alex嗎？
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?
24 小時成交量US$509
累積成交量US$4.4萬
流動性US$3.4萬
截止時間（臺北）2026年11月1日
機率走勢
同時比較 4 個選項 · 市場參考機率
此期間尚無可用的歷史行情目前機率仍可在上方選項中查看。
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英文原文 · 尚未翻譯俄羅斯會在2026年10月31日之前佔領科斯堅堤尼夫卡的皇家咖啡館亞歷克斯嗎？
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The building will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:
- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain
- Assessed Russian Advances
Shading under the following layers will not qualify:
- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas
- Claimed Russian Territory
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png
Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png
Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
官方結算資料來源在 Polymarket 查看完整市場事件背景
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The building will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:
- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain
- Assessed Russian Advances
Shading under the following layers will not qualify:
- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas
- Claimed Russian Territory
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png
Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png
Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.