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美國x中國同意在2026年加快人工智能前沿的步伐嗎？
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
24 小時成交量US$1643.5
累積成交量US$6.2萬
流動性US$4.3萬
截止時間（臺北）2027年1月1日
機率走勢
同時比較 2 個選項 · 市場參考機率
此期間尚無可用的歷史行情目前機率仍可在上方選項中查看。
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英文原文 · 尚未翻譯This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of the United States and China announce an AI pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An AI pacing agreement means an agreement under which both governments commit to at least one of the following for AI developers within their jurisdictions: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Both governments must announce their acceptance of the agreement. A joint statement will qualify, as will separate official statements from each government that, taken together, confirm acceptance of the agreement. A statement by one government that the other does not confirm, and statements that reference ongoing negotiations, a prospective agreement, or an intention to cooperate without confirming acceptance of an agreement, will not qualify. A multilateral agreement will qualify, provided both the United States and China are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above. Qualifying announcements must come from an authorized agency or representative of the relevant country acting in an official capacity.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, signed, ratified, later modified or withdrawn from, or ever implemented. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and China; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of the United States and China announce an AI pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An AI pacing agreement means an agreement under which both governments commit to at least one of the following for AI developers within their jurisdictions: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Both governments must announce their acceptance of the agreement. A joint statement will qualify, as will separate official statements from each government that, taken together, confirm acceptance of the agreement. A statement by one government that the other does not confirm, and statements that reference ongoing negotiations, a prospective agreement, or an intention to cooperate without confirming acceptance of an agreement, will not qualify. A multilateral agreement will qualify, provided both the United States and China are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above. Qualifying announcements must come from an authorized agency or representative of the relevant country acting in an official capacity.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, signed, ratified, later modified or withdrawn from, or ever implemented. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and China; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.