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更接近參議院的比賽：密歇根州還是新罕布什爾州？
Closer Senate Race: Michigan or New Hampshire?
24 小時成交量US$266
累積成交量US$948
流動性US$250
截止時間（臺北）2026年11月4日
機率走勢
同時比較 2 個選項 · 市場參考機率
此期間尚無可用的歷史行情目前機率仍可在上方選項中查看。
檢視各選項行情數據
結算規則
英文原文 · 尚未翻譯The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Michigan" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Michigan has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the New Hampshire Senate election.
This market will resolve to "New Hampshire" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in New Hampshire has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Michigan Senate election.
If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Michigan" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Michigan has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the New Hampshire Senate election.
This market will resolve to "New Hampshire" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in New Hampshire has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Michigan Senate election.
If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.