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幹旱中的牲畜百分比- 2026年10月6日的一周
Percent of Cattle in drought - week of October 6, 2026
24 小時成交量US$225
累積成交量US$346
流動性US$107
截止時間（臺北）2026年10月8日
機率走勢
同時比較 6 個選項 · 市場參考機率
此期間尚無可用的歷史行情目前機率仍可在上方選項中查看。
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結算規則
英文原文 · 尚未翻譯本週有55%或以上的牛隻存欄會處於D1-D4乾旱狀態嗎？
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for cattle inventory in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026.
Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national cattle inventory in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints.
In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.
If no value for the week of October 6, 2026 is published by October 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before October 6, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2.
官方結算資料來源在 Polymarket 查看完整市場事件背景
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for cattle inventory in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026.
Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national cattle inventory in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints.
In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.
If no value for the week of October 6, 2026 is published by October 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before October 6, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2.