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Isaias會有多強大？
How strong will Isaias be?
24 小時成交量US$1144.6
累積成交量US$1144.6
流動性US$978
截止時間（臺北）2026年10月21日
機率走勢
同時比較 5 個選項 · 市場參考機率
此期間尚無可用的歷史行情目前機率仍可在上方選項中查看。
檢視各選項行情數據
結算規則
英文原文 · 尚未翻譯伊薩亞斯會在一級或更弱的強度達到巔峰嗎？
This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Isaias (NHC designation AL092026). Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Isaias in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm.
The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category. If Isaias never reaches Category 1 strength, "Category 1 or weaker" will resolve to "Yes".
Wind speeds will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Maximum sustained winds are reported in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Isaias will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve once Isaias dissipates. If Isaias has not dissipated by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the advisory data needed to determine its peak intensity has not been published by that time, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point.
If the data is still unavailable at the end of that period, or publication has been discontinued, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Isaias in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the issuing center differing from other sources.
A reanalysis or reclassification of Isaias's intensity published after Isaias dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Isaias dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Isaias by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.
官方結算資料來源在 Polymarket 查看完整市場事件背景
This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Isaias (NHC designation AL092026). Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Isaias in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm.
The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category. If Isaias never reaches Category 1 strength, "Category 1 or weaker" will resolve to "Yes".
Wind speeds will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Maximum sustained winds are reported in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Isaias will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve once Isaias dissipates. If Isaias has not dissipated by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the advisory data needed to determine its peak intensity has not been published by that time, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point.
If the data is still unavailable at the end of that period, or publication has been discontinued, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Isaias in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the issuing center differing from other sources.
A reanalysis or reclassification of Isaias's intensity published after Isaias dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Isaias dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Isaias by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.